Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 17

Vitória SC–Nacional

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 2 January 2026 at 20:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

70'Vitória SCNoah Saviolo (assist: T. Strata)
87'Vitória SCRodrigo Abascal (assist: Noah Saviolo)
90'NacionalC. Labidi (assist: Lucas João)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitória SC		Nacional
9	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	3
3	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
390	Passes	304
323	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitória SC 1.55 · Nacional 0.99. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Vitória SC 9 · Nacional 14; on target 4 and 4.
Vitória SC kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Narciso→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.2%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Vitória SC, 0.91 for Nacional.
The highest double chance value is 78.2% (1X — Vitória SC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,061 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitória SC to win50.2%

Draw28.0%

Nacional to win21.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Vitória SC lead at half-time35.7%

Level at half-time44.7%

Nacional lead at half-time19.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitória SC ahead or level80.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Nacional ahead64.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1061 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitória SC: at least 12Actual: 20
Nacional: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

Vitória SC: at least 6Actual: 2
Nacional: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitória SC score1.55

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nacional's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nacional score0.99

Attack: Nacional score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–012.8%2–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.