Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 16

Sporting CP–Rio Ave

4–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 December 2025 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'Sporting CPL. Suárez (assist: J. Simoes)
53'Sporting CPM. Araújo (assist: L. Suárez)
60'Sporting CPL. Suárez (assist: Trincao)
61'Sporting CPL. Suárez

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting CP		Rio Ave
23	Shots	5
12	Shots on target	0
18	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	8
8	Corners	1
0	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
582	Passes	408
526	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 2.81 · Rio Ave 0.39. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Sporting CP 23 · Rio Ave 5; on target 12 and 0.
Sporting CP kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Carlos Macedo, Portugal→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 87.4%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.95 for Sporting CP, 0.50 for Rio Ave.
The highest double chance value is 97.0% (1X — Sporting CP win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,058 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win87.4%

Draw9.6%

Rio Ave to win3.0%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 256 of 293 predictions were correct (87.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sporting CP lead at half-time68.9%

Level at half-time28.0%

Rio Ave lead at half-time3.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting CP ahead or level96.9%

12 — not level at half-time72.0%

X2 — level or Rio Ave ahead31.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1058 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting CP: at least 12Actual: 13
Rio Ave: at least 13Actual: 6

Corners

Sporting CP: at least 7Actual: 8
Rio Ave: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score2.81

Attack: Sporting CP score 78% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.81 goals.

How many goals Rio Ave score0.39

Attack: Rio Ave score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–014.3%2–014.2%4–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.