Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 16

SC Braga–Benfica

2–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 December 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'BenficaNicolás Otamendi
38'SC BragaR. Zalazar (penalty)
45'SC BragaPau Víctor
53'BenficaFredrik Aursnes (assist: Vangelis Pavlidis)
90+3'SC BragaR. Horta · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		Benfica
11	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
487	Passes	503
407	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 1.14 · Benfica 1.59. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots SC Braga 11 · Benfica 14; on target 3 and 6.

Referee

Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal→

6.38

yellows per match

1.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.7%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.02 for SC Braga, 1.42 for Benfica.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (X2 — draw or Benfica win).
These values were computed from 1,057 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win25.7%

Draw28.6%

Benfica to win45.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	9

4	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

SC Braga lead at half-time19.5%

Level at half-time41.3%

Benfica lead at half-time39.2%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Braga ahead or level60.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Benfica ahead80.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1057 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Braga: at least 12Actual: 14
Benfica: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

SC Braga: at least 4Actual: 1
Benfica: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score1.14

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.14 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Benfica score1.59

Attack: Benfica score 64% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.59 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–111.6%1–29.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.