Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 15

Benfica–Famalicao

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 22 December 2025 at 20:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'BenficaVangelis Pavlidis (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Benfica		Famalicao
9	Shots	4
6	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
520	Passes	430
442	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Benfica 2.07 · Famalicao 0.77. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Benfica 9 · Famalicao 4; on target 6 and 2.
Benfica kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.1%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.14 for Benfica, 0.75 for Famalicao.
The highest double chance value is 89.6% (1X — Benfica win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,051 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Benfica to win70.1%

Draw19.5%

Famalicao to win10.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	21

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Benfica lead at half-time43.1%

Level at half-time42.9%

Famalicao lead at half-time14.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Benfica ahead or level86.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Famalicao ahead56.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1051 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Benfica: at least 13Actual: 11
Famalicao: at least 14Actual: 21

Corners

Benfica: at least 6Actual: 5
Famalicao: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Benfica score2.07

Attack: Benfica score 68% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Famalicao's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Famalicao score0.77

Attack: Famalicao score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.2%1–011.2%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.