Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 15

Santa Clara–Arouca

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 December 2025 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Santa Clara		Arouca
9	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	4
3	Offsides	3
52%	Possession	48%
426	Passes	388
339	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Santa Clara 1.64 · Arouca 0.81. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Santa Clara 9 · Arouca 8; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

Vasilica Iancu, Portugal→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.1%: “Santa Clara to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Santa Clara, 0.80 for Arouca.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (1X — Santa Clara win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,049 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Santa Clara to win53.1%

Draw28.0%

Arouca to win18.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Santa Clara lead at half-time44.7%

Level at half-time41.6%

Arouca lead at half-time13.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Santa Clara ahead or level86.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Arouca ahead55.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1049 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Santa Clara: at least 13Actual: 15
Arouca: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Santa Clara: at least 4Actual: 2
Arouca: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Santa Clara score1.64

Attack: Santa Clara score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arouca concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arouca score0.81

Attack: Arouca score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.6%1–113.9%2–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.