Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 15

AVS–Nacional

2–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 December 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Vila das Aves

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.2% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'AVSTómané
43'AVSB. Akinsola (assist: Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques)
50'NacionalZé Vitor (assist: C. Labidi)
61'NacionalJesús Ramírez
73'AVSRúben Semedo · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
AVS		Nacional
16	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
9	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
36%	Possession	64%
251	Passes	460
176	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AVS 1.15 · Nacional 1.50. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots AVS 16 · Nacional 19; on target 3 and 6.
Nacional kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal→

7.14

yellows per match

1.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.1%: “Nacional to win”. Second comes “AVS to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for AVS, 1.28 for Nacional.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,047 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AVS to win33.9%

Draw29.0%

Nacional to win37.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

AVS lead at half-time13.8%

Level at half-time41.4%

Nacional lead at half-time44.8%

First-half double chance

1X — AVS ahead or level55.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Nacional ahead86.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1047 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AVS: at least 13Actual: 10
Nacional: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

AVS: at least 4Actual: 9
Nacional: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AVS score1.15

Attack: AVS score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nacional's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nacional score1.50

Attack: Nacional score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AVS concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–19.6%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.