Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 14

SC Braga–Santa Clara

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 15 December 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'SC BragaR. Horta (assist: G. Martinez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		Santa Clara
6	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
68%	Possession	32%
770	Passes	370
705	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 1.53 · Santa Clara 0.92. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots SC Braga 6 · Santa Clara 5; on target 3 and 2.
SC Braga kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa, Portugal→

2.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.6%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for SC Braga, 0.63 for Santa Clara.
The highest double chance value is 88.8% (1X — SC Braga win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,042 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win65.6%

Draw23.2%

Santa Clara to win11.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

SC Braga lead at half-time42.8%

Level at half-time41.2%

Santa Clara lead at half-time16.0%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Braga ahead or level84.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Santa Clara ahead57.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1042 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Braga: at least 12Actual: 10
Santa Clara: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

SC Braga: at least 5Actual: 5
Santa Clara: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score1.53

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.53 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Santa Clara score0.92

Attack: Santa Clara score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.6%2–014.8%1–111.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.