Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 14

Arouca–Alverca

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 December 2025 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'AlvercaSandro Lima · red card
59'AroucaLee Hyun-Ju (assist: Tiago Esgaio)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arouca		Alverca
18	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
69%	Possession	31%
606	Passes	276
531	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arouca 1.12 · Alverca 1.62. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Arouca 18 · Alverca 5; on target 4 and 1.
Arouca kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal→

7.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Alverca to win”. Second comes “Arouca to win” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Arouca, 1.28 for Alverca.
The highest double chance value is 70.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,040 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arouca to win30.4%

Draw29.7%

Alverca to win39.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Arouca lead at half-time27.2%

Level at half-time41.5%

Alverca lead at half-time31.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Arouca ahead or level68.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Alverca ahead72.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1040 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arouca: at least 14Actual: 15
Alverca: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Arouca: at least 4Actual: 8
Alverca: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arouca score1.12

Attack: Arouca score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Alverca's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alverca score1.62

Attack: Alverca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arouca concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–111.1%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.