Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 14

Sporting CP–AVS

6–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Sporting CPL. Suárez
35'Sporting CPM. Araújo (assist: G. Vagiannidis)
37'Sporting CPGeny Catamo (assist: G. Kochorashvili)
47'Sporting CPM. Araújo (assist: G. Vagiannidis)
53'Sporting CPL. Suárez (assist: Matheus Reis)
90'Sporting CPGeny Catamo

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting CP		AVS
24	Shots	7
14	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	9
8	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
529	Passes	264
460	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 3.05 · AVS 0.23. On the pitch: 6-0.
Shots Sporting CP 24 · AVS 7; on target 14 and 3.
Sporting CP kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Vasilica Iancu, Portugal→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 89.3%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 8.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.04 for Sporting CP, 0.44 for AVS.
The highest double chance value is 97.7% (1X — Sporting CP win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,037 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win89.3%

Draw8.4%

AVS to win2.3%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 256 of 293 predictions were correct (87.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Sporting CP lead at half-time72.2%

Level at half-time25.0%

AVS lead at half-time2.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting CP ahead or level97.2%

12 — not level at half-time75.0%

X2 — level or AVS ahead27.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1037 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting CP: at least 11Actual: 11
AVS: at least 14Actual: 9

Corners

Sporting CP: at least 6Actual: 8
AVS: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score3.05

Attack: Sporting CP score 73% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: AVS concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 3.05 goals.

How many goals AVS score0.23

Attack: AVS score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–015.2%2–014.5%4–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.