Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 14

Rio Ave–Vitória SC

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'Rio AveM. Vrousai · red card
35'Vitória SCO. Camara

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rio Ave		Vitória SC
8	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
374	Passes	477
318	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rio Ave 1.14 · Vitória SC 1.39. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Rio Ave 8 · Vitória SC 16; on target 2 and 3.
Vitória SC kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Pedro Ramalho, Portugal→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.0%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “Rio Ave to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Rio Ave, 1.33 for Vitória SC.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,036 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rio Ave to win30.8%

Draw29.1%

Vitória SC to win40.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Rio Ave lead at half-time27.8%

Level at half-time43.9%

Vitória SC lead at half-time28.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Rio Ave ahead or level71.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Vitória SC ahead72.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1036 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rio Ave: at least 13Actual: 15
Vitória SC: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Rio Ave: at least 3Actual: 6
Vitória SC: at least 6Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rio Ave score1.14

Attack: Rio Ave score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vitória SC score1.39

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–110.4%1–29.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.