Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 13

Tondela–FC Porto

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela

Goals and red cards

48'FC PortoSamu
49'FC PortoWilliam

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tondela		FC Porto
11	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
26%	Possession	74%
217	Passes	648
160	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tondela 0.75 · FC Porto 1.87. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Tondela 11 · FC Porto 11; on target 2 and 6.
FC Porto kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

Luís Godinho, Portugal→

5.20

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.4%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.75 for Tondela, 1.87 for FC Porto.
The highest double chance value is 87.2% (X2 — draw or FC Porto win).
These values were computed from 1,033 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tondela to win12.8%

Draw22.7%

FC Porto to win64.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Tondela lead at half-time8.5%

Level at half-time38.4%

FC Porto lead at half-time53.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Tondela ahead or level46.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or FC Porto ahead91.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1033 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tondela: at least 13Actual: 9
FC Porto: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Tondela: at least 3Actual: 2
FC Porto: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tondela score0.75

Attack: Tondela score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Porto score1.87

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Tondela's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–213.2%0–113.0%1–111.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.