Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 13

Alverca–Nacional

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverkaduribajo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

88'AlvercaMarezi (assist: D. Gui)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Alverca		Nacional
10	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	2
3	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
418	Passes	427
347	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Alverca 1.53 · Nacional 1.11. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Alverca 10 · Nacional 17; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

Gustavo Correia, Portugal→

5.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.6%: “Alverca to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Alverca, 1.02 for Nacional.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (1X — Alverca win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,031 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Alverca to win44.6%

Draw29.0%

Nacional to win26.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Alverca lead at half-time25.5%

Level at half-time42.3%

Nacional lead at half-time32.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Alverca ahead or level67.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Nacional ahead74.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1031 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Alverca: at least 12Actual: 10
Nacional: at least 13Actual: 19

Corners

Alverca: at least 4Actual: 2
Nacional: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Alverca score1.53

Attack: Alverca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nacional's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nacional score1.11

Attack: Nacional score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alverca's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–011.7%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.