Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 13

Santa Clara–Casa Pia

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Santa ClaraFrederico Venâncio (assist: Serginho)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Santa Clara		Casa Pia
11	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	7
1	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
285	Passes	383
210	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Santa Clara 1.53 · Casa Pia 0.85. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Santa Clara 11 · Casa Pia 5; on target 3 and 2.
Casa Pia kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Diogo Rosa, Portugal→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.7%: “Santa Clara to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Santa Clara, 0.75 for Casa Pia.
The highest double chance value is 78.9% (1X — Santa Clara win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,027 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Santa Clara to win47.7%

Draw31.2%

Casa Pia to win21.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

23	Fouls	12

5	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Santa Clara lead at half-time37.1%

Level at half-time43.5%

Casa Pia lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Santa Clara ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Casa Pia ahead62.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1027 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Santa Clara: at least 13Actual: 23
Casa Pia: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Santa Clara: at least 4Actual: 7
Casa Pia: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Santa Clara score1.53

Attack: Santa Clara score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Casa Pia score0.85

Attack: Casa Pia score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.5%1–114.6%0–013.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.