Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 12

FC Porto–Estoril

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'FC PortoWilliam

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Porto		Estoril
12	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
443	Passes	468
370	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Porto 2.20 · Estoril 0.67. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Porto 12 · Estoril 11; on target 6 and 2.

Referee

Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.7%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.52 for FC Porto, 0.66 for Estoril.
The highest double chance value is 93.5% (1X — FC Porto win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,024 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Porto to win78.7%

Draw14.8%

Estoril to win6.5%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,093 of 4,437 predictions were correct (47.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Porto win or draw93.5%

12 — any result other than a draw85.2%

X2 — draw or Estoril win21.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (14.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Porto lead at half-time61.3%

Level at half-time32.2%

Estoril lead at half-time6.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Porto ahead or level93.5%

12 — not level at half-time67.8%

X2 — level or Estoril ahead38.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1024 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Porto: at least 13Actual: 14
Estoril: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

FC Porto: at least 5Actual: 5
Estoril: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Porto score2.20

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Estoril concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.20 goals.

How many goals Estoril score0.67

Attack: Estoril score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.6%3–011.5%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1024 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 113 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.