Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 12

Vitória SC–AVS

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Friday, 28 November 2025 at 20:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Vitória SCNélson Oliveira (assist: O. Camara)
27'Vitória SCÓscar Rivas
32'Vitória SCBeni (assist: Gonçalo Nogueira)
75'Vitória SCO. Camara (assist: Rodrigo Abascal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitória SC		AVS
11	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
7	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
340	Passes	415
287	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitória SC 1.78 · AVS 0.79. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Vitória SC 11 · AVS 9; on target 4 and 1.

Referee

Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa, Portugal→

2.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.0%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Vitória SC, 0.83 for AVS.
The highest double chance value is 81.3% (1X — Vitória SC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,017 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitória SC to win54.0%

Draw27.3%

AVS to win18.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Vitória SC lead at half-time49.0%

Level at half-time39.8%

AVS lead at half-time11.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitória SC ahead or level88.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or AVS ahead51.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1017 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitória SC: at least 13Actual: 11
AVS: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Vitória SC: at least 5Actual: 7
AVS: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitória SC score1.78

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AVS concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AVS score0.79

Attack: AVS score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.8%1–113.7%2–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.