Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 11

Estrela–Nacional

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'NacionalJosé Gomes (assist: Liziero)
62'EstrelaSidny Lopes Cabral (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estrela		Nacional
14	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
442	Passes	269
349	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estrela 1.26 · Nacional 1.21. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Estrela 14 · Nacional 17; on target 4 and 4.
Estrela kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal→

6.00

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.2%: “Estrela to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Estrela, 1.07 for Nacional.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (1X — Estrela win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,012 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estrela to win41.2%

Draw29.6%

Nacional to win29.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Estrela lead at half-time26.5%

Level at half-time43.9%

Nacional lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Estrela ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Nacional ahead73.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1012 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estrela: at least 13Actual: 12
Nacional: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

Estrela: at least 4Actual: 2
Nacional: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estrela score1.26

Attack: Estrela score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nacional's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nacional score1.21

Attack: Nacional score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Estrela's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–011.4%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.