Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 11

Tondela–Vitória SC

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'Vitória SCO. Camara (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tondela		Vitória SC
15	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
391	Passes	394
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tondela 1.20 · Vitória SC 1.44. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Tondela 15 · Vitória SC 11; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “Tondela to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Tondela, 1.25 for Vitória SC.
The highest double chance value is 70.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,010 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tondela to win31.9%

Draw29.9%

Vitória SC to win38.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Tondela lead at half-time17.3%

Level at half-time44.5%

Vitória SC lead at half-time38.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Tondela ahead or level61.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Vitória SC ahead82.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1010 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tondela: at least 13Actual: 14
Vitória SC: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Tondela: at least 3Actual: 4
Vitória SC: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tondela score1.20

Attack: Tondela score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vitória SC score1.44

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tondela concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–110.8%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.