Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 10

GIL Vicente–Santa Clara

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 3 November 2025 at 20:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'GIL VicentePablo (assist: Joelson Fernandes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GIL Vicente		Santa Clara
9	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	0
0	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
329	Passes	534
270	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GIL Vicente 1.17 · Santa Clara 1.05. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots GIL Vicente 9 · Santa Clara 15; on target 3 and 4.
Santa Clara kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Sergio Guelho, Portugal→

6.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.5%: “GIL Vicente to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for GIL Vicente, 0.80 for Santa Clara.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (1X — GIL Vicente win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,007 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GIL Vicente to win47.5%

Draw30.5%

Santa Clara to win21.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

GIL Vicente lead at half-time35.0%

Level at half-time47.0%

Santa Clara lead at half-time18.0%

First-half double chance

1X — GIL Vicente ahead or level82.0%

12 — not level at half-time53.0%

X2 — level or Santa Clara ahead65.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1007 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GIL Vicente: at least 13Actual: 16
Santa Clara: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

GIL Vicente: at least 4
Santa Clara: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GIL Vicente score1.17

Attack: GIL Vicente score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Santa Clara score1.05

Attack: Santa Clara score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.4%1–114.7%0–012.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.