Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 10

FC Porto–SC Braga

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'FC PortoRodrigo Mora (assist: Samu)
51'SC BragaV. Gomez (assist: R. Zalazar)
79'FC PortoBorja Sainz (assist: Gabri Veiga)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Porto		SC Braga
9	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	3
3	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
31%	Possession	69%
305	Passes	678
218	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Porto 1.65 · SC Braga 0.92. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC Porto 9 · SC Braga 10; on target 4 and 3.
SC Braga kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal→

6.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.3%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for FC Porto, 0.80 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 85.7% (1X — FC Porto win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,006 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Porto to win62.3%

Draw23.4%

SC Braga to win14.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Porto lead at half-time44.4%

Level at half-time39.7%

SC Braga lead at half-time15.9%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Porto ahead or level84.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or SC Braga ahead55.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1006 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Porto: at least 12Actual: 15
SC Braga: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

FC Porto: at least 4Actual: 2
SC Braga: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Porto score1.65

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score0.92

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.6%2–012.5%1–111.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.