Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 10

Rio Ave–Estoril

0–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Rio AveJ. Panzo · red card
40'EstorilY. Begraoui (assist: J. Holsgrove)
45'EstorilY. Begraoui (assist: P. Carvalho)
63'EstorilA. Lacximicant (assist: J. Holsgrove)
70'EstorilY. Begraoui (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rio Ave		Estoril
2	Shots	24
0	Shots on target	6
2	Shots inside the box	16
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	6
1	Offsides	3
41%	Possession	59%
437	Passes	607
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rio Ave 1.53 · Estoril 1.27. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Rio Ave 2 · Estoril 24; on target 0 and 6.
Estoril kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Miguel Nogueira, Portugal→

5.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “Rio Ave to win”. Second comes “Estoril to win” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Rio Ave, 1.18 for Estoril.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,001 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rio Ave to win42.4%

Draw28.0%

Estoril to win29.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Rio Ave lead at half-time36.6%

Level at half-time40.8%

Estoril lead at half-time22.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Rio Ave ahead or level77.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Estoril ahead63.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1001 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rio Ave: at least 13Actual: 10
Estoril: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Rio Ave: at least 4
Estoril: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rio Ave score1.53

Attack: Rio Ave score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Estoril concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Estoril score1.27

Attack: Estoril score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.8%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.