Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 9

SC Braga–Casa Pia

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 20:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'SC BragaR. Horta
8'SC BragaGustaf Lagerbielke
48'SC BragaMario Dorgeles
57'SC BragaR. Zalazar (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		Casa Pia
15	Shots	3
8	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	2
4	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
552	Passes	361
484	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 1.85 · Casa Pia 0.79. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots SC Braga 15 · Casa Pia 3; on target 8 and 1.
SC Braga kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Carlos Macedo, Portugal→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.3%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.01 for SC Braga, 0.75 for Casa Pia.
The highest double chance value is 88.4% (1X — SC Braga win or draw).
These values were computed from 997 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win67.3%

Draw21.0%

Casa Pia to win11.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

SC Braga lead at half-time51.0%

Level at half-time36.7%

Casa Pia lead at half-time12.3%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Braga ahead or level87.7%

12 — not level at half-time63.3%

X2 — level or Casa Pia ahead49.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 997 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Braga: at least 12Actual: 16
Casa Pia: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

SC Braga: at least 6Actual: 4
Casa Pia: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score1.85

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Casa Pia score0.79

Attack: Casa Pia score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.2%1–012.0%1–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.