Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 8

Arouca–Famalicao

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Goals and red cards

58'AroucaA. Trezza
84'AroucaJosé Fontán · red card
86'FamalicaoJ. De Haas

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arouca		Famalicao
7	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	11
2	Offsides	4
46%	Possession	54%
309	Passes	346
239	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arouca 1.20 · Famalicao 1.37. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Arouca 7 · Famalicao 14; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

Luís Godinho, Portugal→

3.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “Famalicao to win”. Second comes “Arouca to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Arouca, 1.37 for Famalicao.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 986 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arouca to win31.6%

Draw28.5%

Famalicao to win39.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	12

5	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Arouca lead at half-time21.9%

Level at half-time45.9%

Famalicao lead at half-time32.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Arouca ahead or level67.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Famalicao ahead78.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 986 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arouca: at least 15Actual: 22
Famalicao: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Arouca: at least 4Actual: 4
Famalicao: at least 4Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arouca score1.20

Attack: Arouca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Famalicao's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Famalicao score1.37

Attack: Famalicao score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arouca concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–19.6%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.