Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 8

Vitória SC–Santa Clara

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Santa ClaraVinícius Lopes (assist: Wendel Silva)
73'Vitória SCA. Ndoye (assist: Samu)
78'Vitória SCSamu

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitória SC		Santa Clara
14	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
413	Passes	402
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitória SC 1.15 · Santa Clara 1.03. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Vitória SC 14 · Santa Clara 13; on target 7 and 5.

Referee

Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal→

6.33

yellows per match

1.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.9%: “Santa Clara to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.95 for Vitória SC, 1.04 for Santa Clara.
The highest double chance value is 68.7% (X2 — draw or Santa Clara win).
These values were computed from 985 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitória SC to win31.3%

Draw32.9%

Santa Clara to win35.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Vitória SC lead at half-time31.7%

Level at half-time46.7%

Santa Clara lead at half-time21.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Vitória SC ahead or level78.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Santa Clara ahead68.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 985 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vitória SC: at least 14Actual: 17
Santa Clara: at least 14Actual: 11

Corners

Vitória SC: at least 5Actual: 9
Santa Clara: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitória SC score1.15

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Santa Clara concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Santa Clara score1.03

Attack: Santa Clara score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%0–113.5%0–013.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.