La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 32

Mallorca–Leganes

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 April 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma de Mallorca

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mallorca		Leganes
11	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
401	Passes	323
318	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mallorca 1.53 · Leganes 0.90. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Mallorca 11 · Leganes 15; on target 1 and 1.
Mallorca kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Alejandro Muñiz→

4.67

yellows per match

0.39

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.9%: “Mallorca to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Mallorca, 0.66 for Leganes.
The highest double chance value is 82.8% (1X — Mallorca win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,072 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mallorca to win52.9%

Draw30.0%

Leganes to win17.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,338 of 2,543 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Mallorca lead at half-time28.4%

Level at half-time47.3%

Leganes lead at half-time24.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Mallorca ahead or level75.8%

12 — not level at half-time52.7%

X2 — level or Leganes ahead71.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1072 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mallorca: at least 11Actual: 17
Leganes: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Mallorca: at least 5Actual: 4
Leganes: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mallorca score1.53

Attack: Mallorca score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Leganes concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leganes score0.90

Attack: Leganes score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mallorca's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–017.8%1–113.8%0–013.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.