Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 7

SC Braga–Nacional

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 September 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 12%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'NacionalJesús Ramírez (assist: José Gomes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Braga		Nacional
9	Shots	13
1	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	3
0	Offsides	3
60%	Possession	40%
610	Passes	409
495	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 1.86 · Nacional 0.83. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots SC Braga 9 · Nacional 13; on target 1 and 5.
SC Braga kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca, Portugal→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.7%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.05 for SC Braga, 0.77 for Nacional.
The highest double chance value is 88.4% (1X — SC Braga win or draw).
These values were computed from 978 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win67.7%

Draw20.7%

Nacional to win11.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

4	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

SC Braga lead at half-time51.3%

Level at half-time37.3%

Nacional lead at half-time11.4%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Braga ahead or level88.6%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or Nacional ahead48.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 978 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Braga: at least 12Actual: 4
Nacional: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

SC Braga: at least 6Actual: 6
Nacional: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score1.86

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Nacional's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nacional score0.83

Attack: Nacional score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.0%1–011.5%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.