Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 7

Estoril–Sporting CP

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Goals and red cards

12'Sporting CPL. Suárez (assist: M. Araújo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estoril		Sporting CP
7	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	9
1	Offsides	3
38%	Possession	62%
365	Passes	600
278	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estoril 0.67 · Sporting CP 2.50. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Estoril 7 · Sporting CP 9; on target 2 and 2.
Sporting CP kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Luís Godinho, Portugal→

2.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.3%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.67 for Estoril, 2.50 for Sporting CP.
The highest double chance value is 93.4% (X2 — draw or Sporting CP win).
These values were computed from 976 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estoril to win6.6%

Draw15.0%

Sporting CP to win78.3%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Estoril win or draw21.7%

12 — any result other than a draw85.0%

X2 — draw or Sporting CP win93.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (15.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Estoril lead at half-time14.7%

Level at half-time37.5%

Sporting CP lead at half-time47.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Estoril ahead or level52.1%

12 — not level at half-time62.5%

X2 — level or Sporting CP ahead85.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 976 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estoril: at least 14Actual: 13
Sporting CP: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Estoril: at least 3Actual: 3
Sporting CP: at least 5Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estoril score0.67

Attack: Estoril score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sporting CP score2.50

Attack: Sporting CP score 83% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Estoril concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.50 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–213.6%0–311.4%0–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 976 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 108 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.