Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 7

Moreirense–Casa Pia

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Casa PiaJ. Livolant (assist: Abdu Conté)
14'MoreirenseGuilherme Schettine (assist: K. Bondoso)
70'MoreirenseBernardo Martins

Match statistics

Match statistics
Moreirense		Casa Pia
12	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	8
4	Offsides	3
54%	Possession	46%
418	Passes	338
339	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Moreirense 1.37 · Casa Pia 0.96. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Moreirense 12 · Casa Pia 20; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

Jose Bessa, Portugal→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “Moreirense to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Moreirense, 0.94 for Casa Pia.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (1X — Moreirense win or draw).
These values were computed from 973 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Moreirense to win45.1%

Draw29.8%

Casa Pia to win25.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	15

5	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Moreirense lead at half-time41.7%

Level at half-time43.1%

Casa Pia lead at half-time15.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Moreirense ahead or level84.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Casa Pia ahead58.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 973 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Moreirense: at least 13Actual: 13
Casa Pia: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

Moreirense: at least 4Actual: 6
Casa Pia: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Moreirense score1.37

Attack: Moreirense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Casa Pia's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Casa Pia score0.96

Attack: Casa Pia score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Moreirense's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–013.0%0–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.