Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 6

GIL Vicente–Estoril

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 September 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'GIL VicentePablo (penalty)
85'GIL VicenteJoelson Fernandes (assist: G. Varela)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GIL Vicente		Estoril
16	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	0
1	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
345	Passes	331
253	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GIL Vicente 1.48 · Estoril 1.13. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots GIL Vicente 16 · Estoril 7; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

Carlos Macedo, Portugal→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.7%: “GIL Vicente to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for GIL Vicente, 0.97 for Estoril.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (1X — GIL Vicente win or draw).
These values were computed from 968 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GIL Vicente to win47.7%

Draw28.5%

Estoril to win23.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

GIL Vicente lead at half-time33.4%

Level at half-time44.4%

Estoril lead at half-time22.3%

First-half double chance

1X — GIL Vicente ahead or level77.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Estoril ahead66.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 968 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GIL Vicente: at least 12Actual: 16
Estoril: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

GIL Vicente: at least 4
Estoril: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GIL Vicente score1.48

Attack: GIL Vicente score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estoril concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Estoril score1.13

Attack: Estoril score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GIL Vicente's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–012.2%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.