La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 32

Rayo Vallecano–Valencia

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 April 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Rayo VallecanoC. Tarrega (own goal)
75'ValenciaU. Sadiq

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rayo Vallecano		Valencia
11	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
444	Passes	350
369	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano 1.38 · Valencia 1.06. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Rayo Vallecano 11 · Valencia 10; on target 4 and 3.
Rayo Vallecano kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Alejandro Quintero→

4.97

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “Rayo Vallecano to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.07 for Valencia.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (1X — Rayo Vallecano win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,070 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rayo Vallecano to win40.5%

Draw29.8%

Valencia to win29.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Rayo Vallecano lead at half-time33.8%

Level at half-time45.3%

Valencia lead at half-time20.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Rayo Vallecano ahead or level79.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Valencia ahead66.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1070 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rayo Vallecano: at least 12Actual: 18
Valencia: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Rayo Vallecano: at least 5Actual: 5
Valencia: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score1.38

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valencia's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valencia score1.06

Attack: Valencia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–011.3%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.