Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 6

Rio Ave–FC Porto

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 19 September 2025 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'FC PortoP. Rosario (assist: Gabri Veiga)
14'FC PortoSamu (assist: Gabri Veiga)
52'FC PortoGabri Veiga (assist: Pepê Aquino)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rio Ave		FC Porto
7	Shots	19
2	Shots on target	7
3	Shots inside the box	14
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	10
2	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
449	Passes	496
380	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rio Ave 0.87 · FC Porto 1.93. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Rio Ave 7 · FC Porto 19; on target 2 and 7.

Referee

Anzhony Rodrigues, Portugal→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.9%: “FC Porto to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.79 for Rio Ave, 2.24 for FC Porto.
The highest double chance value is 89.6% (X2 — draw or FC Porto win).
These values were computed from 962 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rio Ave to win10.4%

Draw18.8%

FC Porto to win70.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Rio Ave lead at half-time17.5%

Level at half-time41.0%

FC Porto lead at half-time41.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Rio Ave ahead or level58.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or FC Porto ahead82.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 962 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rio Ave: at least 13Actual: 11
FC Porto: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

Rio Ave: at least 3Actual: 2
FC Porto: at least 5Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rio Ave score0.87

Attack: Rio Ave score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Porto concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Porto score1.93

Attack: FC Porto score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.93 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–212.5%1–210.6%0–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.