Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 5

Moreirense–Rio Ave

3–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 September 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'MoreirenseTravassos (assist: D. Pinto)
61'MoreirenseMarcelo (assist: Alanzinho)
69'MoreirenseAlanzinho (assist: D. Pinto)
84'Rio AveAndre Luiz (assist: G. Liavas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Moreirense		Rio Ave
15	Shots	15
8	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	3
2	Offsides	3
54%	Possession	46%
495	Passes	413
430	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Moreirense 1.45 · Rio Ave 1.04. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Moreirense 15 · Rio Ave 15; on target 8 and 4.

Referee

M. Torres→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.7%: “Moreirense to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Moreirense, 0.97 for Rio Ave.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (1X — Moreirense win or draw).
These values were computed from 955 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Moreirense to win44.7%

Draw29.5%

Rio Ave to win25.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Moreirense lead at half-time39.5%

Level at half-time42.1%

Rio Ave lead at half-time18.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Moreirense ahead or level81.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Rio Ave ahead60.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 955 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Moreirense: at least 14Actual: 12
Rio Ave: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Moreirense: at least 4Actual: 7
Rio Ave: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Moreirense score1.45

Attack: Moreirense score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rio Ave concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rio Ave score1.04

Attack: Rio Ave score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Moreirense's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–012.5%0–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.