Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 4

AVS–Famalicao

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 30 August 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Vila das Aves

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'FamalicaoL. Realpe · red card
70'FamalicaoJ. De Haas (assist: Sorriso)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AVS		Famalicao
13	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	9
2	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
305	Passes	377
229	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AVS 1.09 · Famalicao 1.47. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots AVS 13 · Famalicao 11; on target 3 and 3.
Famalicao kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

A. Rodrigues→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “Famalicao to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.91 for AVS, 1.42 for Famalicao.
The highest double chance value is 77.4% (X2 — draw or Famalicao win).
These values were computed from 945 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AVS to win22.6%

Draw28.8%

Famalicao to win48.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

AVS lead at half-time15.0%

Level at half-time42.3%

Famalicao lead at half-time42.8%

First-half double chance

1X — AVS ahead or level57.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Famalicao ahead85.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 945 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AVS: at least 15Actual: 16
Famalicao: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

AVS: at least 4Actual: 5
Famalicao: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AVS score1.09

Attack: AVS score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Famalicao's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Famalicao score1.47

Attack: Famalicao score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AVS concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–113.2%0–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.