Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 3

Estrela–Alverca

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Monday, 25 August 2025 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Goals and red cards

37'AlvercaC. Nuozzi (assist: I. James)
45'AlvercaMarezi
45'EstrelaFabio Ronaldo (assist: J. Gastao)
47'EstrelaPaulo Moreira · red card
62'AlvercaKaiky Naves · red card
63'EstrelaSidny Lopes Cabral

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estrela		Alverca
19	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
301	Passes	241
235	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots Estrela 19 · Alverca 6; on target 6 and 2.
Estrela kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

R. Baixinho→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

One of the teams has only 2 matches in this league (at least 10 are required). A percentage produced from thin data is a guess dressed as certainty — we don't show it.

18	Fouls	24

4	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	1

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.