Primeira Liga · Portugal · Regular Season - 1

Estoril–Estrela

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 11 August 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Cascais

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'EstorilT. Parente
75'EstrelaI. Stoica (assist: Rodrigo Pinho)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estoril		Estrela
8	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	3
65%	Possession	35%
509	Passes	266
425	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estoril 1.65 · Estrela 0.97. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Estoril 8 · Estrela 9; on target 3 and 5.
Estoril kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

A. Rodrigues→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.6%: “Estoril to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Estoril, 0.86 for Estrela.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (1X — Estoril win or draw).
These values were computed from 924 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estoril to win54.6%

Draw26.6%

Estrela to win18.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	16

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Estoril lead at half-time46.6%

Level at half-time40.4%

Estrela lead at half-time12.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Estoril ahead or level87.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Estrela ahead53.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 924 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estoril: at least 15Actual: 13
Estrela: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Estoril: at least 4Actual: 4
Estrela: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estoril score1.65

Attack: Estoril score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Estrela's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Estrela score0.97

Attack: Estrela score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estoril concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–012.9%2–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.