Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Group - 40

St. Truiden–KV Mechelen

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'St. TruidenA. Muja (assist: R. Yamamoto)
45'St. TruidenT. Hata (assist: A. Muja)
71'St. TruidenR. Merlen

Match statistics

Match statistics
St. Truiden		KV Mechelen
11	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	2
4	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
384	Passes	425
316	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: St. Truiden 1.82 · KV Mechelen 0.97. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots St. Truiden 11 · KV Mechelen 7; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

J. Vergoote→

3.72

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

100

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.6%: “St. Truiden to win”. Second comes “KV Mechelen to win” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for St. Truiden, 1.32 for KV Mechelen.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,123 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

St. Truiden to win51.6%

Draw23.8%

KV Mechelen to win24.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	5

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 816 of 1,253 predictions were correct (65.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — St. Truiden win or draw75.4%

12 — any result other than a draw76.2%

X2 — draw or KV Mechelen win48.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.8%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

St. Truiden lead at half-time31.2%

Level at half-time43.0%

KV Mechelen lead at half-time25.8%

First-half double chance

1X — St. Truiden ahead or level74.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or KV Mechelen ahead68.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1123 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

St. Truiden: at least 10Actual: 6
KV Mechelen: at least 10Actual: 5

Corners

St. Truiden: at least 5Actual: 2
KV Mechelen: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,830 of 2,908 predictions were correct (62.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals St. Truiden score1.82

Attack: St. Truiden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KV Mechelen score0.97

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%2–110.5%2–07.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1123 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 132 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.