Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Group - 40

Club Brugge KV–Gent

5–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Club Brugge KVCarlos Forbs (assist: C. Tzolis)
33'Club Brugge KVN. Tresoldi (assist: H. Vetlesen)
41'Club Brugge KVN. Tresoldi (assist: C. Sandra)
53'Club Brugge KVN. Tresoldi (assist: H. Vetlesen)
79'Club Brugge KVC. Tzolis (assist: N. Tresoldi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Club Brugge KV		Gent
26	Shots	14
11	Shots on target	2
21	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	8
0	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
532	Passes	424
486	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Club Brugge KV 2.22 · Gent 0.85. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Club Brugge KV 26 · Gent 14; on target 11 and 2.
Club Brugge KV kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

E. Lambrechts→

3.91

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.3%: “Club Brugge KV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.43 for Club Brugge KV, 1.18 for Gent.
The highest double chance value is 84.5% (1X — Club Brugge KV win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,123 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Club Brugge KV to win65.3%

Draw19.2%

Gent to win15.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,092 of 1,602 predictions were correct (68.2%). Accuracy record →

4	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Club Brugge KV lead at half-time52.4%

Level at half-time36.2%

Gent lead at half-time11.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Club Brugge KV ahead or level88.7%

12 — not level at half-time63.8%

X2 — level or Gent ahead47.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1123 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Club Brugge KV: at least 9Actual: 4
Gent: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Club Brugge KV: at least 6Actual: 5
Gent: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Club Brugge KV score2.22

Attack: Club Brugge KV score 56% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Gent's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gent score0.85

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Club Brugge KV concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.4%1–18.5%3–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.