Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Conference League Group - 40

OH Leuven–Genk

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

16'GenkJ. Ito (assist: Y. Medina)
33'GenkA. Yokoyama (assist: Z. El Ouahdi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OH Leuven		Genk
15	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	4
5	Offsides	4
50%	Possession	50%
405	Passes	424
337	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OH Leuven 1.26 · Genk 1.44. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots OH Leuven 15 · Genk 11; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

B. Verbeke→

2.89

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.9%: “Genk to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for OH Leuven, 2.01 for Genk.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (X2 — draw or Genk win).
These values were computed from 1,123 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OH Leuven to win21.9%

Draw23.1%

Genk to win54.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — OH Leuven win or draw45.1%

12 — any result other than a draw76.9%

X2 — draw or Genk win78.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

OH Leuven lead at half-time25.8%

Level at half-time42.3%

Genk lead at half-time31.9%

First-half double chance

1X — OH Leuven ahead or level68.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Genk ahead74.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1123 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OH Leuven: at least 12Actual: 11
Genk: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

OH Leuven: at least 4Actual: 4
Genk: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,830 of 2,908 predictions were correct (62.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OH Leuven score1.26

Attack: OH Leuven score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genk score1.44

Attack: Genk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%1–210.7%0–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.