Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Group - 38

Anderlecht–KV Mechelen

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'KV MechelenM. van Brederode
17'AnderlechtN. Saliba (assist: D. Sikan)
60'KV MechelenT. Koudou (assist: M. van Brederode)
90'AnderlechtI. Camara (assist: A. Maamar)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Anderlecht		KV Mechelen
13	Shots	9
9	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
2	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
518	Passes	353
418	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Anderlecht 1.72 · KV Mechelen 1.10. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Anderlecht 13 · KV Mechelen 9; on target 9 and 3.
Anderlecht kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

J. Boterberg→

3.56

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.6%: “Anderlecht to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for Anderlecht, 1.11 for KV Mechelen.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (1X — Anderlecht win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,118 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Anderlecht to win50.6%

Draw25.9%

KV Mechelen to win23.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Anderlecht lead at half-time26.7%

Level at half-time42.4%

KV Mechelen lead at half-time31.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Anderlecht ahead or level69.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or KV Mechelen ahead73.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1118 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Anderlecht: at least 11Actual: 16
KV Mechelen: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Anderlecht: at least 5Actual: 2
KV Mechelen: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Anderlecht score1.72

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KV Mechelen score1.10

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.6%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.