Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Group - 38

St. Truiden–Gent

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'GentW. Kanga (assist: M. Delorge)
69'St. TruidenLoïc Mbe Soh (assist: K. Matsuzawa)

Match statistics

Match statistics
St. Truiden		Gent
16	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	10
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	3
0	Offsides	3
64%	Possession	36%
635	Passes	355
561	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: St. Truiden 1.67 · Gent 1.07. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots St. Truiden 16 · Gent 12; on target 4 and 1.
St. Truiden kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

L. Visser→

4.48

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.0%: “St. Truiden to win”. Second comes “Gent to win” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for St. Truiden, 1.36 for Gent.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,117 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

St. Truiden to win46.0%

Draw25.3%

Gent to win28.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,214 of 3,676 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — St. Truiden win or draw71.3%

12 — any result other than a draw74.7%

X2 — draw or Gent win54.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

St. Truiden lead at half-time35.4%

Level at half-time42.0%

Gent lead at half-time22.6%

First-half double chance

1X — St. Truiden ahead or level77.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Gent ahead64.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1117 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

St. Truiden: at least 9Actual: 10
Gent: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

St. Truiden: at least 6Actual: 3
Gent: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals St. Truiden score1.67

Attack: St. Truiden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gent's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gent score1.07

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–110.2%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1117 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 131 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.