Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Conference League Group - 38

Standard Liege–Genk

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished

Match statistics

Match statistics
Standard Liege		Genk
10	Shots	22
4	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	13
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
462	Passes	484
374	Accurate passes	407
4

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Standard Liege 1.10 · Genk 1.42. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Standard Liege 10 · Genk 22; on target 4 and 5.

Referee

N. Laforge→

4.71

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.9%: “Genk to win”. Second comes “Standard Liege to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Standard Liege, 1.60 for Genk.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,117 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Standard Liege to win29.7%

Draw26.4%

Genk to win43.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Standard Liege lead at half-time28.6%

Level at half-time42.2%

Genk lead at half-time29.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Standard Liege ahead or level70.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Genk ahead71.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1117 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Standard Liege: at least 10Actual: 4
Genk: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Standard Liege: at least 4Actual: 5
Genk: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Standard Liege score1.10

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genk score1.42

Attack: Genk score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–210.1%2–18.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.