Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Group - 37

Union St. Gilloise–KV Mechelen

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Union St. GilloiseM. Biondic (assist: A. Khalaili)
61'Union St. GilloiseA. Ait El Hadj (assist: M. Biondic)
90'Union St. GilloiseM. Fuseini (assist: A. Ait El Hadj)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union St. Gilloise		KV Mechelen
14	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
44%	Possession	56%
426	Passes	548
345	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise 1.91 · KV Mechelen 0.68. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Union St. Gilloise 14 · KV Mechelen 5; on target 6 and 1.
KV Mechelen kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

E. Lambrechts→

3.92

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.4%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.04 for Union St. Gilloise, 0.81 for KV Mechelen.
The highest double chance value is 87.5% (1X — Union St. Gilloise win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,116 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union St. Gilloise to win66.4%

Draw21.1%

KV Mechelen to win12.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Union St. Gilloise lead at half-time43.9%

Level at half-time42.4%

KV Mechelen lead at half-time13.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Union St. Gilloise ahead or level86.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or KV Mechelen ahead56.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1116 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union St. Gilloise: at least 11Actual: 11
KV Mechelen: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

Union St. Gilloise: at least 6Actual: 3
KV Mechelen: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score1.91

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KV Mechelen score0.68

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.4%1–011.1%2–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.