Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Group - 37

Gent–Anderlecht

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Planet Group Arena, Gent

Goals and red cards

11'AnderlechtL. Lopes (own goal)
44'GentJean-Kévin Duverne (assist: H. Goore)
45+2'AnderlechtMihajlo Cvetković · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gent		Anderlecht
15	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	4
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
64%	Possession	36%
546	Passes	322
488	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gent 1.45 · Anderlecht 1.35. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Gent 15 · Anderlecht 8; on target 3 and 5.
Gent kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

N. Verboomen→

4.26

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.7%: “Gent to win”. Second comes “Anderlecht to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Gent, 1.35 for Anderlecht.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,115 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gent to win38.7%

Draw27.3%

Anderlecht to win34.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Gent win or draw65.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.7%

X2 — draw or Anderlecht win61.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Gent lead at half-time35.1%

Level at half-time41.6%

Anderlecht lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Gent ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Anderlecht ahead64.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1115 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gent: at least 9Actual: 11
Anderlecht: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Gent: at least 4Actual: 4
Anderlecht: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gent score1.45

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Anderlecht score1.35

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gent's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–19.4%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1115 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 140 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.