Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Conference League Group - 37

Standard Liege–OH Leuven

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 8 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

40'OH LeuvenR. Nyakossi
47'Standard LiegeH. Lawrence
69'Standard LiegeC. Nielsen (assist: J. Homawoo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Standard Liege		OH Leuven
13	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	7
3	Offsides	3
55%	Possession	45%
477	Passes	388
398	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Standard Liege 1.21 · OH Leuven 1.17. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Standard Liege 13 · OH Leuven 12; on target 4 and 2.
Standard Liege kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

B. Van Driessche→

4.46

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.4%: “Standard Liege to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for Standard Liege, 1.12 for OH Leuven.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (1X — Standard Liege win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,114 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Standard Liege to win49.4%

Draw26.2%

OH Leuven to win24.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,524 of 6,225 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Standard Liege win or draw75.6%

12 — any result other than a draw73.8%

X2 — draw or OH Leuven win50.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Standard Liege lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time45.1%

OH Leuven lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Standard Liege ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or OH Leuven ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1114 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Standard Liege: at least 10Actual: 5
OH Leuven: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Standard Liege: at least 5Actual: 3
OH Leuven: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Standard Liege score1.21

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals OH Leuven score1.17

Attack: OH Leuven score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.5%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1114 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 123 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.