Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Championship Group - 36

KV Mechelen–Gent

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'KV MechelenB. Boersma (assist: Kerim Mrabti)

Match statistics

Match statistics
KV Mechelen		Gent
9	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
416	Passes	397
337	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KV Mechelen 1.39 · Gent 1.38. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots KV Mechelen 9 · Gent 9; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

Simon Bourdeaud'hui, Belgium→

3.14

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Gent to win”. Second comes “KV Mechelen to win” at 35.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for KV Mechelen, 1.46 for Gent.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,112 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KV Mechelen to win35.0%

Draw27.0%

Gent to win38.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,215 of 3,677 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — KV Mechelen win or draw62.0%

12 — any result other than a draw73.0%

X2 — draw or Gent win65.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

KV Mechelen lead at half-time30.6%

Level at half-time42.7%

Gent lead at half-time26.8%

First-half double chance

1X — KV Mechelen ahead or level73.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Gent ahead69.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1112 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KV Mechelen: at least 9Actual: 10
Gent: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

KV Mechelen: at least 5Actual: 7
Gent: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,136 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KV Mechelen score1.39

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gent's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gent score1.38

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–29.3%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1112 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 128 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.