Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Conference League Group - 36

Charleroi–Genk

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi

Goals and red cards

55'CharleroiK. Van Den Kerkhof (assist: A. Scheidler)
69'CharleroiParfait Guiagon (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Charleroi		Genk
11	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	14
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
417	Passes	435
356	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Charleroi 1.31 · Genk 1.36. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Charleroi 11 · Genk 17; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

L. Visser→

4.51

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Genk to win”. Second comes “Charleroi to win” at 35.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Charleroi, 1.48 for Genk.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,111 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Charleroi to win35.7%

Draw26.7%

Genk to win37.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Charleroi lead at half-time30.0%

Level at half-time40.4%

Genk lead at half-time29.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Charleroi ahead or level70.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Genk ahead70.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1111 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Charleroi: at least 10Actual: 14
Genk: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Charleroi: at least 5Actual: 3
Genk: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,135 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Charleroi score1.31

Attack: Charleroi score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genk score1.36

Attack: Genk score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Charleroi's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–29.3%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.