Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Conference League Group - 36

KVC Westerlo–OH Leuven

3–3

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Het Kuipje, Westerlo

Goals and red cards

10'OH LeuvenA. Traoré (assist: S. Kaba)
15'OH LeuvenW. George (assist: A. Traoré)
41'OH LeuvenK. Vaesen (assist: Óscar Gil)
50'KVC WesterloA. Sayyadmanesh (assist: Bryan Reynolds)
52'KVC WesterloI. Sakamoto
68'KVC WesterloA. Sayyadmanesh

Match statistics

Match statistics
KVC Westerlo		OH Leuven
12	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
399	Passes	370
322	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KVC Westerlo 1.53 · OH Leuven 1.17. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots KVC Westerlo 12 · OH Leuven 10; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

W. De Cremer→

3.90

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.7%: “KVC Westerlo to win”. Second comes “OH Leuven to win” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for KVC Westerlo, 1.29 for OH Leuven.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,111 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KVC Westerlo to win49.7%

Draw24.7%

OH Leuven to win25.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,214 of 3,676 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — KVC Westerlo win or draw74.4%

12 — any result other than a draw75.3%

X2 — draw or OH Leuven win50.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–3

KVC Westerlo lead at half-time31.7%

Level at half-time43.0%

OH Leuven lead at half-time25.2%

First-half double chance

1X — KVC Westerlo ahead or level74.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or OH Leuven ahead68.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1111 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KVC Westerlo: at least 10Actual: 9
OH Leuven: at least 14Actual: 17

Corners

KVC Westerlo: at least 6Actual: 4
OH Leuven: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KVC Westerlo score1.53

Attack: KVC Westerlo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals OH Leuven score1.17

Attack: OH Leuven score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KVC Westerlo's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–110.5%2–07.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1111 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 124 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.