Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Relegation Group - 35

Cercle Brugge–Zulte Waregem

2–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 1 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

21'Cercle BruggeI. Diaby
57'Zulte WaregemJ. Erenbjerg
65'Cercle BruggeD. Vanzeir (assist: P. Gerkens)
67'Zulte WaregemM. Aké
88'Zulte WaregemJoseph Okopu (assist: S. Ujka)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cercle Brugge		Zulte Waregem
17	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	7
11	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
380	Passes	431
300	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cercle Brugge 1.62 · Zulte Waregem 1.24. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Cercle Brugge 17 · Zulte Waregem 14; on target 7 and 7.

Referee

A. Letellier→

2.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.6%: “Cercle Brugge to win”. Second comes “Zulte Waregem to win” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for Cercle Brugge, 1.33 for Zulte Waregem.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,111 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cercle Brugge to win49.6%

Draw24.4%

Zulte Waregem to win26.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 816 of 1,253 predictions were correct (65.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Cercle Brugge win or draw74.0%

12 — any result other than a draw75.6%

X2 — draw or Zulte Waregem win50.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time36.7%

Level at half-time39.2%

Zulte Waregem lead at half-time24.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Cercle Brugge ahead or level75.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or Zulte Waregem ahead63.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1111 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cercle Brugge: at least 10Actual: 13
Zulte Waregem: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Cercle Brugge: at least 5Actual: 6
Zulte Waregem: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,830 of 2,908 predictions were correct (62.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cercle Brugge score1.62

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zulte Waregem's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zulte Waregem score1.24

Attack: Zulte Waregem score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–110.4%1–27.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1111 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 64 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.