Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Relegation Group - 34

Zulte Waregem–RAAL La Louvière

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Elindus Arena, Waregem

Goals and red cards

13'Zulte WaregemJ. Erenbjerg
25'Zulte WaregemJ. Erenbjerg (assist: A. Ementa)
64'Zulte WaregemJoseph Okopu (assist: A. Ementa)
74'Zulte WaregemJoseph Okopu (assist: A. Ementa)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zulte Waregem		RAAL La Louvière
12	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	6
3	Offsides	5
55%	Possession	45%
432	Passes	343
366	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zulte Waregem 1.34 · RAAL La Louvière 1.16. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Zulte Waregem 12 · RAAL La Louvière 10; on target 5 and 1.
Zulte Waregem kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

M. Ledda→

3.57

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.6%: “Zulte Waregem to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Zulte Waregem, 1.08 for RAAL La Louvière.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (1X — Zulte Waregem win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,111 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zulte Waregem to win49.6%

Draw26.5%

RAAL La Louvière to win23.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Zulte Waregem lead at half-time30.6%

Level at half-time42.7%

RAAL La Louvière lead at half-time26.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Zulte Waregem ahead or level73.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or RAAL La Louvière ahead69.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1111 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zulte Waregem: at least 10Actual: 13
RAAL La Louvière: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Zulte Waregem: at least 4Actual: 5
RAAL La Louvière: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zulte Waregem score1.34

Attack: Zulte Waregem score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RAAL La Louvière's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RAAL La Louvière score1.16

Attack: RAAL La Louvière score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Zulte Waregem's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.5%1–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.