Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Conference League Group - 35

KVC Westerlo–Antwerp

2–4

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Het Kuipje, Westerlo

Goals and red cards

10'KVC WesterloEmin Bayram · red card
25'AntwerpV. Janssen (assist: G. Kerk)
28'AntwerpV. Janssen (assist: Z. Van Den Bosch)
44'AntwerpC. Scott (assist: V. Janssen)
58'KVC WesterloI. Sakamoto
60'AntwerpG. Kerk

Match statistics

Match statistics
KVC Westerlo		Antwerp
10	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	12
4	Shots inside the box	14
8	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	7
2	Offsides	8
35%	Possession	65%
259	Passes	476
182	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KVC Westerlo 1.46 · Antwerp 1.11. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots KVC Westerlo 10 · Antwerp 20; on target 4 and 12.
Antwerp kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

N. Laforge→

4.71

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “KVC Westerlo to win”. Second comes “Antwerp to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for KVC Westerlo, 1.30 for Antwerp.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,108 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KVC Westerlo to win42.8%

Draw26.7%

Antwerp to win30.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

(assist: V. Janssen)

87'KVC WesterloS. Saito

11	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,215 of 3,677 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — KVC Westerlo win or draw69.5%

12 — any result other than a draw73.3%

X2 — draw or Antwerp win57.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–3

KVC Westerlo lead at half-time27.9%

Level at half-time43.4%

Antwerp lead at half-time28.7%

First-half double chance

1X — KVC Westerlo ahead or level71.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Antwerp ahead72.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1108 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KVC Westerlo: at least 9Actual: 11
Antwerp: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

KVC Westerlo: at least 5Actual: 2
Antwerp: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,136 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KVC Westerlo score1.46

Attack: KVC Westerlo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Antwerp's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Antwerp score1.11

Attack: Antwerp score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: KVC Westerlo's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–19.9%1–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1108 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 124 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.