Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Conference League Group - 35

OH Leuven–Charleroi

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

53'CharleroiA. Bernier (assist: K. Van Den Kerkhof)
69'CharleroiA. Scheidler (assist: K. Van Den Kerkhof)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OH Leuven		Charleroi
4	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
512	Passes	381
448	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OH Leuven 1.28 · Charleroi 1.23. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots OH Leuven 4 · Charleroi 11; on target 3 and 4.
OH Leuven kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Letellier→

2.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.7%: “Charleroi to win”. Second comes “OH Leuven to win” at 35.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for OH Leuven, 1.37 for Charleroi.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,108 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OH Leuven to win35.4%

Draw27.8%

Charleroi to win36.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

OH Leuven lead at half-time26.9%

Level at half-time43.5%

Charleroi lead at half-time29.7%

First-half double chance

1X — OH Leuven ahead or level70.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Charleroi ahead73.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1108 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OH Leuven: at least 11Actual: 8
Charleroi: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

OH Leuven: at least 4Actual: 4
Charleroi: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OH Leuven score1.28

Attack: OH Leuven score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Charleroi's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charleroi score1.23

Attack: Charleroi score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.1%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.